Our EUR USD Weekly ECOTECHS chart, which we set out in the weekends on the Home page, shows the maximum impact we assume from the events coming up throughout the week but is now updated with the hourly highs, lows and ranges for EUR USD as the week unfolds, making it easy to see what is left of “obstacles” throughout the remains of the week.
In insider+ we further have a 5-minute EUR USD Weekly ECOTECHS chart, clearly pointing out what impact there was from each of the main events throughout the week over the first 5 minutes after their release time.
Scrolling over all the all the charts we present – either they are economic data for Euro area countries, the Euro area or the US as well as the comparisons charts we show for key indicators for the two regions, will give you all the details you need from the chart observations, either it is information about the individual observations you are looking for or trend lines along a time scale.
The same goes for our EUR USD monthly forecast and the weekly and daily Trading Strategies. Both are available as interactive tool kits for traders to test out ours and simulate their own.
In our Weekly Outlook section, we highlight the events we see of material importance throughout the week and we forecast the impact they will have on EUR USD as daily highs and lows for the pair throughout the week. We keep over original weekend forecast intact throughout the week while showing the real moves for the EUR USD in the same chart.
In our Daily section, we provide comments to the intraday session, market sentiment, price actions, who is doing what and for what reason and the outcome of events – 4-5 times per day, including at the start of the European session, just ahead of the US market joining and around US closing time.
The EUR USD Insider was never an Advisory Service – nor is it now. While we tell subscribers what we do, the platform contains data, research material, analysis and a set of tools for traders to work on the material themselves, hopefully giving them better ways of making their forecast, discovering more ways of defining trading strategies and in the end, to give better trading results.
Insider+ contains extensive material to prepare the week, including a weekly outlook, the full economic calendar and the impact we see from each of its events, the minimum and maximum impact we see for events per day during the week as well as for the week in total.
We also set out the events in our EUR USD Weekly ECOTECHS chart – a 5-minute chart, enabling you to follow the real impact of each event over the 5 minutes to follow their release time.
We like to forecast the outcome of the main events from such assumptions, we draw a EUR USD forecast for the week.
Throughout the daily sessions, we make commentaries to the outcome of events, price action, market sentiment, who does what and for what reasons approx. 4-5 times per session, including at the start of the European session, just before the US market joins and at the end of the US session.
We make assumptions for the volume strength of the three closest technical support and resistance levels.
As insider+ is an interactive, analytical platform – offering EUR USD traders a set of tool kits to analyse and simulate their own forecast and trading strategies, we do set out the EUR USD forecast and trading strategies we favour for ourselves and how we intend to implement the strategies, including that of specifying the entries and exits we make but we underline that this is not an advisory service for subscribers to follow. We simply tell what we do from the risk parameters we follow.
We forecast EUR USD 12-months into the future from economic data, monetary policies, geopolitical risk factors, adding an element of market sentiment thinking and major participants’ positioning.
Our quantitative studies of US and Euro area data and their impact on the EUR and the USD, enable us to forecast EUR USD. We like to do this monthly and for 12 months into the future.
When doing so, we study developments in different business sectors and the aggregate data we see for foreign balances, prices, debt, deficits and
other GDP components, fiscal and monetary policies and the risk elements geopolitical factors represent.
We add some assumptions for market participants positioning in the two currencies and the sentiment thinking among participants, should we fell that this would be a strong factor over certain periods.
Forecasting is a useful exercise for all traders and we provide subscribers to insider+ with a simple model that can be used for simulating their own forecast.
EUR USD long and short trading strategies are set out with different objectives – with risk parameters set from the strategies attraction.
Based on our forecast, we are able to set out EUR USD trading strategies for different objectives. We do this both for long and short EUR USD positions with risk parameters set from the strategies attraction
Those we label “excellent” would normally be for an objective of 600-900 pips, which one might argue there is not that many of. But from time to time there is and if fiscal policies and monetary policies are at the brink of causing substantial and sustainable growth levels – or the lack thereof – then the currencies affected, might have a long way to go.
A bit less attractive in terms of objective but higher in terms of frequency are those we label “attractive” and with an objective of 300-600 pips. They are often argued the same way as
those being “excellent” but with more emphasis on market sentiment and momentum and the way we read positioning in the market, should such be weighted heavily to one side.
The third strategy group are those with an objective up to 300 pips. They occur frequently and they are mostly argued from the impact of upcoming important news and data releases (like ECB and FOMC meetings) and the possibility that the outcome of such events can trigger entry and/or exit levels for strategies. We label the strategies “intra week” – not limiting them to one week but more from the thinking that an average week often shows a range close to what would be objective for such strategies.
The “intra week” strategies are normally not contradicting those we label “excellent” or “attractive” but they might have entry and exit levels with more focus on the assumed strength of close support and resistance levels.
Our EUR USD Weekly ECOTECHS chart is a three-year old invention we are proud of. On the site you will find an hourly chart setting out the scheduled events throughout the week and their possible impact on EURUSD. As the week unfolds, the chart is updated with the real price action, showing the impact such events have had an hour from release and other analysis (like trend lines) we like to make from what is going on.
In insider+ the EUR USD Weekly ECOTECHS chart is replaced by a five-minute chart, enabling traders to see the impact from each release over the 5 minutes to follow release time.
On request we can provide EUR USD Weekly ECOTECHS charts going back to the start of 2015. The material is almost like a history book with emphasis on the reasons for EUR USD’s moves over the last two years.
Nothing move the prices of currency pairs more than news and data releases. Most data releases are pre-scheduled and for many of them, analysts will publicise their forecast for the releases, often creating the same expectations among traders to what the outcome will be – and therefore movements for currency pairs – should the released data be different from what was consensus expectations. The bigger this surprise element is, the greater the volatility in the aftermath of the release often is.
We take a quantitative approach to the data releases – not by forecasting what the release will be – but through detailed studies of what impact there is, depending on the surprise element.
Where we find clear correlations between the surprise element and the impact in the aftermath of a release, we conclude that there is a pattern to be found among market participants, which we turn into trade setups – enabling us to trade the outcome of many of the regular releases.
We present economic data with the deliberate us of colour combinations, chart types, more axis and individual scaling of them, several trend lines, the highlighting of certain periods and comments to recent observations so that critical observations and conclusions can be drawn without unnecessary delays.
For us it is important to understand what the released data means – and as quickly as possible.
We study the data along historical time lines for the releases for different periods of time.
We analyse the data related to trend lines (average over different periods, polynomial, logarithmic and exponential) and we use the findings in our forecast for the US and Euro area economies and their two currencies.
While the surprise element in a release is important for the price impact in the immediate aftermath of a release, data also tells a story about strength and weaknesses of an economy, which could extend or correct the initial move and help us in forecasting and setting trading strategies for different objectives over time.
To understand what data releases really mean for an economy and its currency is utterly important and how data is presented to traders is a critical factor in this respect. It is all about drawing the right conclusion and quicker than others.
We use columns in blue for the 36 last monthly releases. We like the 3-year period for the purpose of drawing up some trend lines like average and polynomial.
We add the average for the last 12 months as well as high lighten the last 3 months and the three months before those. Emphasis those two 3-months periods the way we do makes it easy to see what has happened from one quarter to another, which is especially useful when making assumptions for quarterly GDP releases.
For Euro area releases. We have put EUR USD as a background illustration to the release, simply to spot whether there is some sort of trend correlation between the strength of the Euro and the strength of this data.
For US releases we use the USD index for the same purpose.
For several data releases we are interested in monitoring the impact the release has on the EUR USD – often as a consequence of the surprise element the release is causing. Such surprise element is set as the difference between the actual release and what was consensus estimate among analysts.
For these releases we show the 36 observations as two areas in the 2nd graph – one for the actual release and one for the estimate. We further have high lightened the surprise element by setting it out as columns for each of the 36 observations and scaled the surprise element on a separate axis.
We set out strategies for trading special events based on detailed research of the events’ historical quantitative impact on EUR USD.
We have conducted historical research going 20 years back in time in terms of the EUR USD impact certain data releases have had on the pair – over the first seconds, minutes and throughout the rest of a trading session.
While extended time periods offer a solid data base for the research, certain periods are excluded as they represent material changes to monetary or fiscal policies or geopolitical events which has a material impact thereafter. Samples include: before and after the collapse of Lehmann Brothers, before and after Euro area debt problems, from Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes”, before and after easing measures by central banks – just to mention a few.
The special events include the first quarterly GDP releases, employment and inflation data as well as a few confidence indices.
While monetary policy meetings are not data releases, their impact on currencies are substantial and we include the impact from changes to interest rates, policy statement and press conferences in the set of tools offered.
A separate website: www.quantsformarkets.com will be launched shortly for those traders who like to trade special events.
EUR USD was started by the economist & editor in chief Tor Vollalokken in 2013. It was created to provide a framework of tools for currency traders, specifically the euro-dollar currency pair.
The tools provided are based on fundamental analysis and quantitative studies of price impact from news releases.
The EUR USD is now a part of Quants for Markets S.L.
For the first 17 years of his professional life he was empl.oyed by a leading European bank, including several years as Head of Foreign Exchange.
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